Weather Bug

Monday, December 27, 2010

UPDATED 5 AM EST, December 27, 2010

Posted by ILIAS at 2:05 AM

Heavy Snow, Blizzard Targets Northeast, Mid-Atlantic By WeatherBug Sr. Meteorologist, James West
	Click to Enlarge Related Content Northeast Radar Portland, Maine, Interactive Radar Boston Interactive Radar Philadelphia Interactive Radar New York City Interactive Radar A major winter storm is setting its sights on the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic to round out the holiday weekend, bringing more than a foot of snow along and east of Interstate 95 from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. As if that weren`t enough, gusty winds will create blizzard conditions for the highly-populated New York and Boston metro areas. WeatherBug Meteorologist Bryan Karrick has the latest in his exclusive WeatherBug Severe Outlook. The ingredients for this major winter blast are quickly forming along the Eastern Seaboard. An area of low pressure has rolling up the Mid-Atlantic Coast and a pool of cold, Arctic air is entrenched along the East Coast. The low will march northeastward tonight as a coastal low, pulling plenty of Atlantic moisture onshore, right into the face of the building Arctic air mass. Already snow is pushing into the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from eastern Virginia into southern Maine. Accumulations with this initial snow have been light, although the snowfall should pick up in earnest through this evening and tonight as the storm intensifies as it pushes up the Atlantic coast. Moderate snow will spread into the Boston metro area as the evening wears on. The snow will then continue into Monday morning across the Mid-Atlantic and last through Monday evening in the Northeast. Locations along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor will see more snow compared to those to the west of Interstate 95. This includes the Delmarva Peninsula, much of New Jersey, New York City and Long Island, and southern and eastern New England. The heaviest snowfall amounts will fall in Boston`s western suburbs, where 20 to 25 inches of the white stuff could be found. Further south 8 to 16 inches will be common near New York City while the shores of the Chesapeake Bay, Delmarva Peninsula and Philadelphia metro area will see 6 to 10 inches of snow. Accumulations of 3 to 8 inches will be found near Richmond, Va. For the mountains of western Virginia, decent snowfall and high winds will be factor with this storm. A High Wind Warning is in effect there which includes the city of Roanoke, Va. With a rapidly strengthening storm, gusty winds will also be part of the equation. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be common across the New York and Boston metro area, Long Island, and along the Connecticut and Rhode Island coasts. Along with the falling snow, these gusty winds will create blizzard conditions, and near zero visibilities for the highly populated Interstate 95 corridor cities of the Northeast. A Blizzard Warning stretches along the coast from the Delmarva Peninsula to Maine. Cities included in this warning are New York City, Newark, N.J., Hartford, Conn., Providence, R.I., Boston, and Portland, Maine. Winter Storm Warnings stretch from North Carolina to New England, including Raleigh, N.C., Richmond, Va., Philadelphia, and Albany, N.Y., while Winter Weather Advisories extend from extreme eastern Tennessee to northern Vermont. Snowfall totals include 7.4 inches in Rosman, Ga., 6 inches in Huntsville, Ala., 12.5 inches in Enfield, N.C., and 10 inches in Franklin, S.C. Norfolk, Va., has seen a foot of snow, while 15.7 inches have fallen in Atlantic City, N.J., and 18 inches in Cape May, N.J. Elizabeth, N.J., has 11.7 inches of snow, while Central Park has 4.5 inches of the white stuff. Boston has seen 6.5 inches of snow, while 6 to 8 inches of snow cover the western suburbs. The storm is likely to create massive travel headaches for the busy post-Christmas travel period, with highways along the Interstate 95 corridor likely to be slick and snow-covered and some secondary roads completely impassible. Check with your airline if you have travel plans into Tuesday. WeatherBug Meteorologists will continue to watch this impending winter storm and provide the latest updates. Be sure to check your WeatherBug for the latest information, and keep your WeatherBug active to receive the latest forecasts for your area. Get the latest updates anywhere on Twitter at WeatherBug WeatherBuzz. What do you think of this story? Click here for comments or suggestions.

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Cause

On Earth, common weather phenomena include wind, cloud, rain, snow, fog and dust storms. Less common events include natural disasters such as tornadoes, hurricanes, typhoons and ice storms. Almost all familiar weather phenomena occur in the troposphere (the lower part of the atmosphere).[3] Weather does occur in the stratosphere and can affect weather lower down in the troposphere, but the exact mechanisms are poorly understood.[5]

Weather occurs primarily due to density (temperature and moisture) differences between one place to another. These differences can occur due to the sun angle at any particular spot, which varies by latitude from the tropics. In other words, the farther from the tropics you lie, the lower the sun angle is, which causes those locations to be cooler due to the indirect sunlight.[6] The strong temperature contrast between polar and tropical air gives rise to the jet stream.[7] Weather systems in the mid-latitudes, such as extratropical cyclones, are caused by instabilities of the jet stream flow (see baroclinity).[8] Weather systems in the tropics, such as monsoons or organized thunderstorm systems, are caused by different processes.

Because the Earth's axis is tilted relative to its orbital plane, sunlight is incident at different angles at different times of the year. In June the Northern Hemisphere is tilted towards the sun, so at any given Northern Hemisphere latitude sunlight falls more directly on that spot than in December (see Effect of sun angle on climate).[9] This effect causes seasons. Over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years, changes in Earth's orbital parameters affect the amount and distribution of solar energy received by the Earth and influence long-term climate. (see Milankovitch cycles).[10]

The uneven solar heating (the formation of zones of temperature and moisture gradients, or frontogenesis) can also be due to the weather itself in the form of cloudiness and precipitation.[11] Higher altitudes are cooler than lower altitudes, which is explained by the lapse rate.[12][13] On local scales, temperature differences can occur because different surfaces (such as oceans, forests, ice sheets, or man-made objects) have differing physical characteristics such as reflectivity, roughness, or moisture content.

Surface temperature differences in turn cause pressure differences. A hot surface heats the air above it and the air expands,lowering the air pressure and its density.[14] The resulting horizontal pressure gradient accelerates the air from high to low pressure, creating wind, and Earth's rotation then causes curvature of the flow via the Coriolis effect.[15] The simple systems thus formed can then display emergent behaviour to produce more complex systems and thus other weather phenomena. Large scale examples include the Hadley cell while a smaller scale example would be coastal breezes.

The atmosphere is a chaotic system, so small changes to one part of the system can grow to have large effects on the system as a whole.[16] This makes it difficult to accurately predict weather more than a few days in advance, though weather forecasters are continually working to extend this limit through the scientific study of weather, meteorology. It is theoretically impossible to make useful day-to-day predictions more than about two weeks ahead, imposing an upper limit to potential for improved prediction skill.[17]

Modification

The aspiration to control the weather is evident throughout human history: from ancient rituals intended to bring rain for crops to the U. S. Military Operation Popeye, an attempt to disrupt supply lines by lengthening the North Vietnamese monsoon. The most successful attempts at influencing weather involve cloud seeding; they include the fog- and low stratus dispersion techniques employed by major airports, techniques used to increase winter precipitation over mountains, and techniques to suppress hail.[41] A recent example of weather control was China's preparation for the 2008 Summer Olympic Games. China shot 1,104 rain dispersal rockets from 21 sites in the city of Beijing in an effort to keep rain away from the opening ceremony of the games on August 8, 2008. Guo Hu, head of the Beijing Municipal Meteorological Bureau (BMB), confirmed the success of the operation with 100 millimeters falling in Baoding City of Hebei Province, to the southwest and Beijing's Fangshan District recording a rainfall of 25 millimeters.[42]

Whereas there is inconclusive evidence for these techniques' efficacy, there is extensive evidence that human activity such as agriculture and industry results in inadvertent weather modification:[41]

* Acid rain, caused by industrial emission of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere, adversely effects freshwater lakes, vegetation, and structures.
* Anthropogenic pollutants reduce air quality and visibility.
* Climate change caused by human activities that emit greenhouse gases into the air is expected to affect the frequency of extreme weather events such as drought, extreme temperatures, flooding, high winds, and severe storms.[43]

The effects of inadvertent weather modification may pose serious threats to many aspects of civilization, including ecosystems, natural resources, food and fiber production, economic development, and human health.[44

Forecasting

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennial, and formally since at least the nineteenth century.[25][26] Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve.[27]

Once an all-human endeavor based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition,[28][29] forecast models are now used to determine future conditions. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus helps to narrow the error and pick the most likely outcome.[30][31][32]

There are a variety of end users to weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and property.[33] Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture,[34][35][36][37] and therefore to commodity traders within stock markets. Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days.[38][39][40] On an everyday basis, people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and the wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.

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Weather Bug

Monday, December 27, 2010

UPDATED 5 AM EST, December 27, 2010

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