Saturday, December 25, 2010

Possible Winter Storm Heading Toward East Coast

By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Andrew Rosenthal


A large storm crossing the U.S. midsection tonight is poised to push into the East later this weekend, and could be responsible for a pummeling of snowfall from the Mid-Atlantic coast into New England. However, as often happens this time of year, computer models have been flip-flopping on just how big of a storm this will be.
The ingredients for a winter storm are coming together across the Mississippi Valley. An area of low pressure is forming along the western Gulf coast, spreading northward warm and water-laden Gulf of Mexico air and producing heavy rain and thunderstorms in Texas and western Louisiana tonight. At the same time, a disturbance is dropping southeastward from the Dakotas, bringing with it a bit more moisture and energy and a pool of cold air.
The disturbance and low are forecast to start merging tonight, producing a swath of moderate snowfall across the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys. This wintry weather is forecast to follow the low`s progression eastward as it chugs along the Gulf Coast and across northern Florida. In all, 3 to 4 inches of snow will blanket the region, prompting Winter Weather Advisories to be put in effect.
By early Sunday, the low will be found just off of the South Carolina coast, and as it sweeps by the Carolinas, it will bring between 3 and 6 inches of snow along the Interstate 40 corridor of central North Carolina. This has prompted Winter Storm Warning to be issued in central North Carolina, including the Raleigh-Durham metro area.
After that is where things get a bit trickier. What`s known is that the storm will start to slide northeastward, just off the East Coast. Where is a different story altogether. Several computer models have forecast the low to scoot just off the Eastern Seaboard, combining a cold air mass already in place with plenty of Atlantic moisture. However, other models have the low sliding northeastward well offshore.
The difference between these two tracks is slight across the Carolinas, but will amount to about 200 miles near the Mid-Atlantic, and as much as 400 to 500 miles in New England by Monday morning. This could be the difference between nearly no snow and several inches to a foot of snow for the busy Interstate 95 corridor.
With the potential for significant snowfall on Sunday and Monday, Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the Interstate 95 corridor and East Coast from South Carolina to Maine.
As the storm comes together, a better idea of which track is the "actual" one will come into focus, and as a result, how much snow can be expected from this storm. WeatherBug Meteorologists will continue to watch this storm`s development, and will provide updates on its track as it comes together.
Be sure to check your WeatherBug for updates on this storm, and keep your WeatherBug active to receive the latest forecasts for your area. Get the latest updates anywhere on Twitter at WeatherBug WeatherBuzz, and of course, have a very Merry Christmas.
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